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Format: Study
Date: 19 December 2023

The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany

Strategies for the market ramp-up in district heating and industry

#Buildings and heat transition

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Preface
Key findings

Preface

This study on large-scale heat pumps provides an overview of the current market status and the potential of large-scale heat pumps and their use in district heating and looks at the political priorities for action required for their deployment.

The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps requires a triad consisting of strategic goals and incentives from the public authorities, technological innovation on the part of manufacturers and accelerated implementation by district heating providers and industry. This entails a solution-oriented partnership between private companies and the public sector. Against this background, it makes sense to use the idea of the Mission Economy, as put forward by the Italian American economist Marianna Mazzucato, as a way to promote the market ramp-up of large-scale heat pumps for the German climate transformation.

This new approach to solving major societal tasks is characterised by an active partnership between the private and public sectors in which the state defines the challenges and problems to be solved without imposing detailed prescriptions and provides investment confidence and security for the private sector. In return, private actors commit to goals such as cost reductions or attractive products and services for customers. In addition, the state takes on entrepreneurial risks, but also takes a share of the returns.

With this study, we want to make a contribution to exploiting the considerable potential of large-scale heat pumps and district heating systems for a successful heat transition.

Key findings

Heating applications in the range up to 200 degrees are responsible for over three quarters of Germany‘s fossil gas consumption and over a quarter of its greenhouse gas emissions.

Currently, fossil fuels dominate the heat supply in industrial processes, buildings and district heating systems. In order to achieve the climate targets and reduce fossil gas consumption, it is therefore crucial to switch to climate-neutral options based on renewable energy sources.
The entire heat demand in Germany up to 200 degrees can technically be covered by heat pumps.

As part of this, large-scale heat pumps can exploit considerable potentials offered by geothermal energy, water bodies and waste heat. By 2045, large-scale heat pumps could provide 70 percent of the district heating supply and thus replace a very large proportion of the fossil gas used.
Large-scale heat pumps are a proven technology that has considerable market potential in Germany.

However, there were only 60 megawatts of installed capacity in Germany in 2023. Complex planning and approval procedures are slowing down the market ramp-up. In addition, the existing financial support system under the Combined Heat and Power Act (KWKG) and the higher tax burden on electricity compared to fossil gas have so far favoured gas-based heating options – these perverse incentives must be eliminated.
A rapid ramp-up of large-scale heat pumps requires a cleverly coordinated mix of instruments.

Of overriding importance is a clear overall goal, combined with energy prices that are in line with the transformation and a reform of the network use charges. Manufacturers should use the resulting planning certainty to drive innovation and reduce manufacturing costs. A revised framework of financial support and measures to speed up large-scale heat pump projects in district heating systems can then stimulate demand.

Authors: Fabian Ahrendts, Björn Drechsler, Julian Hendricks, Jan Küpper, Susanne Lang, Tim Peil, Daniel Scholz, Elena Timofeeva, Matthias Utri, Lisa Weidinger (all Fraunhofer IEG); Anna Kraus, Uta Weiß, Simon Müller (all Agora Energiewende).
Publication number: 316/03-S-2023/EN
Version number: 1.0
Publication date: 19 December 2023
Pages: 117
Suggested Citation: Agora Energiewende, Fraunhofer IEG (2023): The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany. Strategies for the market ramp-up in district heating and industry.
Project: This publication was produced within the framework of the project The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany.

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pdf 8 MB The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany

Strategies for the market ramp-up in district heating and industry

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Final energy consumption by application in Germany 2021 (left) Energy sources of supply (right)

Figure A from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 11

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Comparison of the potential heat supply* via heat pumps and the heat demand up to 200 °C** in Germany (excluding ambient air)

Figure B from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 12

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The typical district heating system of a German city in 2045*

Figure C from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 13

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Maximum flow temperatures and heating capacities of available large-scale heat pumps

Figure D from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 14

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Heat up to 200 °C: potential for reducing emissions, gas and final energy consumption

Figure E from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 18

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Share of heating sector in final energy consumption in Germany 2021

Figure 1 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 19

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Number and pipeline length of the approx. 3 800 district heating networks by flow temperature levels

Figure 2 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 23

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Number and thermal output of CHP plants larger than 500 kW and of CHP plants and heating plants in district heating systems

Figure 3 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 24

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Existing and planned large-scale heat pump projects in Germany

Figure 4 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 26

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Heat sources and individual outputs of existing and planned large-scale heat pumps in Germany*

Figure 5 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 27

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European countries with the highest shares of large-scale heat pumps in district heating supply (data from 2020/2021)

Figure 6 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 28

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Ratio of electricity to gas prices in selected countries*

Figure 7 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 29

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Key data on electricity generation from renewables in 2030 – comparison of di erent energy system studies

Figure 8 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 33

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Development of final energy consumption in the buildings sector

Figure 9 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 34

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Development for district heating generation (end supply plus distribution losses) in the T45 scenarios

Figure 10 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 35

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Development for the technology and fuel mix for district heating generation in the T45 scenarios

Figure 11 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 37

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Development for installed thermal capacity in district heating

Figure 12 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 37

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a winter week in 2045*

Figure 13 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 39

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a summer week in 2045*

Figure 14 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 41

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Development of heat storage capacity in district heating

Figure 15 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 42

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Share of large-scale heat pumps in heat generation as a function of residual load

Figure 16 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 42

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District heating load curve* in 2045

Figure 17 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 43

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Minimum economic and ecological benefits*** of flexible operation of large-scale heat pumps

Figure 18 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 44

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Roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in two overlapping phases

Figure 19 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 45

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Distribution of the annual large-scale heat pump addition of 4.0 to 4.9 GW among the different output classes based on the current CHP plant stock*

Figure 20 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 46

Preview for Distribution of the annual large-scale heat pump addition of 4.0 to 4.9 GW among the different output classes based on the current CHP plant stock*

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The typical district heating system of a German city in 2045*

Figure 21 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 47

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Theoretically possible COPs of heat pumps according to heat source and network flow temperature, assuming an e ciency rating* of 50% and di erent flow temperatures of the district heating network

Figure 22 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 49

Preview for Theoretically possible COPs of heat pumps according to heat source and network flow temperature, assuming an e ciency rating* of 50% and di erent flow temperatures of the district heating network

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Comparison of the potential heat supply* via heat pumps and the heat demand up to 200 °C** in Germany (excluding ambient air)

Figure 23 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 55

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Schematic representation of a large-scale heat pump

Figure 24 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 58

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Illustrative impact of di erent configurations on the costs of the circuit components and the COP under constant parameters*

Figure 25 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 59

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Heat output, temperature lift and flexibility of large-scale heat pumps depending on different compressor technology types

Figure 26 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 61

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Coeffcients of performance (COPs) for different refrigerants in a single-stage circuit*

Figure 27 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 63

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Maximum flow temperatures and heating capacities of available large-scale heat pumps

Figure 28 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 66

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COP and temperature lift for large-scale heat pumps currently available on the market with different source and sink temperatures

Figure 29 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 67

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Economic factors affecting large-scale heat pump projects

Figure 30 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 71

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Impact of the heat source and the other system components on the investment costs of large-scale heat pump projects*

Figure 31 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 75

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Unit heat production costs in 2030 for different heat sources with varying full load hours and electricity supply costs for 1 MW and 10 MW heating capacity systems at a sink temperature of 100 °C

Figure 32 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 79

Preview for Unit heat production costs in 2030 for different heat sources with varying full load hours and electricity supply costs for 1 MW and 10 MW heating capacity systems at a sink temperature of 100 °C

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Overview of BEW funding modules

Figure 33 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 81

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Phases of a large-scale heat pump project showing the most important tasks with approximate duration in months

Figure 34 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 90

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Potential for speeding up the planning, approval and completion of large-scale heat pump projects

Figure 35 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 93

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a winter week* in the T45-Electricity scenario

Figure 36 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 121

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a winter week* in the T45-H2 scenario

Figure 37 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 122

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a summer week* in the T45-Electricity scenario

Figure 38 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 123

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Operation of the electricity and district heating sectors in a summer week* in the T45-H2 scenario

Figure 39 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 124

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Minimum economic and ecological benefits* of a flexible operation of large-scale heat pumps in the T45-Electricity scenario

Figure 40 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 125

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Minimum economic and ecological benefits* of flexible operation of large-scale heat pumpsin the T45-H2 scenario

Figure 41 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 126

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Overview of large-scale heat pumps available on the market (TRL = 9)

Figure 42 a from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 127

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Overview of large-scale heat pumps available on the market (TRL = 9)

Figure 42 b from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 128

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Overview of new or improved large-scale heat pumps (TRL < 9) according to IEA HPT Annex 58

Figure 43 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 129

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Breakdown of the heat generation costs* for different heat sources with varying full load hours

Figure 44 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 131

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Unit heat production costs in 2030 for di erent heat sources with varying full load hours and electricity supply costs, for plants with a heating capacity of 1 MW and 10 MW at a sink temperature of 80 °C

Figure 45 from The roll-out of large-scale heat pumps in Germany on page 132

Preview for Unit heat production costs in 2030 for di erent heat sources with varying full load hours and electricity supply costs, for plants with a heating capacity of 1 MW and 10 MW at a sink temperature of 80 °C

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Uta Weiß

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Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems (IEG)

19 December 2023

Great potential: How large-scale heat pumps can make green heat available for buildings and industry

Germany can meet its entire heat demand for temperatures up to 200 °C from CO₂-free sources such as near-surface and deep geothermal energy, waste heat and...

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Uta Weiß

Anna Kraus

Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems (IEG)

Great potential: How large-scale heat pumps can make green heat available for buildings and industry