Agorameter

Please note: The Locational Agorameter displays data mostly calculated by a well-tested model developed by Fraunhofer IEE in collaboration with Agora Energiewende. While the values for the single bidding zone are reported EPEX spot prices, hub prices are calculated by the model.

The Locational Agorameter relies on over 30,000 time series, but the approximately 450 network nodes in the German transmission system were simplified to 22 hubs. This reduction was necessary both to meet the target computation time and because live data is still unavailable at a more detailed regional level.

We have ensured – via extensive calibration work based on backcasting data for more than the past five years – a generally high consistency with market results, but cannot rule out that some model-based deviations occur. Like other fundamental models, the Locational Agorameter is not able to predict very high power prices that can be observed in the market due to mark-ups at times of relative shortages of alternative generation. The same applies to very low negative prices at times of relatively high renewables feed-in compared to the demand. In addition, the model does not take into account short-term changes in the availability of electricity network elements since the modelled electricity grid is generally only updated during annual maintenance. Together with our partners, we are constantly striving to improve the Locational Agorameter and are always open to comments, advice and suggestions.