Cross-border power system integration in Central Asia

The region’s diverse wind, solar and hydropower potential offers a shared economic advantage that can lower fossil fuel dependence. Combining these renewable resources with different seasonal and geographic profiles can enhance system resilience and support higher shares of renewable energy over the long term.

Recent efforts to revitalise cross-border electricity cooperation in the region have accelerated, following decades of limited progress since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In scenarios with higher renewable deployment and no additional coal capacity, deeper regional integration could reduce annual energy costs by around USD 3.5 billion, or 18 percent, by 2035 compared with current plans.

With Kazakhstan’s power mix relying on coal, Uzbekistan’s – on gas and Kyrgyzstan’s – on hydropower, stronger interconnections would enable more efficient dispatch across the region. Clear economic benefits would thus arise from constructing a new transmission line between northern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and strengthening transmission links between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These gains increase further as variable renewable generation expands and gas prices rise, while allowing existing coal, gas and renewable generation assets to operate more flexibly across the region.

Subsidised domestic gas prices currently support the economic attractiveness of gas-based pathways in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the short term. However, tightening domestic supply balances, increasing import dependence and the absence of domestic gas resources in Kyrgyzstan underscore the importance of coordinated planning, system operation and investment across the region – which could also enable Central Asia to emerge as a potential electricity exporter to South Asia over the longer term.