- Authors
- Matthias Buck, Andreas Graf, Dr. Patrick Graichen
- Publication number
- 153/01-I-2019/EN
- Version number
- 1.1
- Publication date
-
6 March 2019
- Pages
- 103
- Suggested Citation
- Agora Energiewende (2019): European Energy Transition 2030: The Big Picture. Ten Priorities for the next European Commission to meet the EU’s 2030 targets and accelerate towards 2050.
- Project
- This publication was produced within the framework of the project European Energy Transition in 2030: The Big Picture.
- Format
- Impulse
- Date
- 6 March 2019
European energy transition 2030: the big picture
Ten priorities for the next European Commission to meet the EU’s 2030 targets and accelerate towards 2050
Preface
In 2018, the EU has decided upon an climate and energy framework up to 2030. The aim is to have a clean, affordable and reliable energy system in Europe. To that end, greenhouse gas emissions are to decline by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels, renewables are to deliver 32 percent of our energy and efficiency is to improve by even 32.5 percent. But what do these targets really mean? How will Europe’s energy system look like in 2030? Which aspects of the transition are particularly important?
Against this background, we present you this report as a basis to understand where we are heading in Europe. For example, the overall renewables target translates into a Europe-wide 57 percent share of renewables in the power sector by 2030, implying that wind and solar will shape Europe’s power system. And the greenhouse gas target implies that coal will need to be cut by two thirds, gas to be reduced by 30 percent and oil by 25 percent – asking for socially just concepts for this transition.
The European Energy Transition 2030 is a political project that concerns us all. It will demand European politics to address key issues to make it happen. In this report we suggest ten priorities and four flagship initiatives. The report is complemented by a technical document that translates the recommendations into a concrete work plan for the new Parliament and the new Commission.
Bibliographical data
Downloads
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Main Report
pdf 4 MB
European Energy Transition 2030: The Big Picture
Ten Priorities for the next European Commission to meet the EU’s 2030 targets and accelerate towards 2050
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Slide Deck
pdf 4 MB
The big picture of a just and clean European energy transition in 2030
Presentation at the launch event, 7 March 2019
All figures in this publication
Climate change is real: since 1970 the rate of global warming has accelerated, and since 1980 extreme weather events have tripled
Figure 1 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 12
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Fossil fuel price projections forecast low to moderate price levels to 2030
Figure 2 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 13
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Cost reductions in major clean-energy technologies from 2008–2017
Figure 3 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 14
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Digital technology will integrate the power, heating and transport sectors
Figure 4 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 15
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Electrification is driving a stronger coupling of power, heat and transport systems
Figure 5 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 16
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Renewables feature high fixed costs compared to conventional technologies, with the exception of nuclear
Figure 6 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 17
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Cities are key players in climate action and home to a large share of the EU population
Figure 7 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 18
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Demographic change in the EU between 2011 and 2016: % change in urban and rural areas
Figure 8 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 19
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The power system’s “one-way street” is replaced by a decentralised, networked structure
Figure 9 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 20
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Net physical electricity flows between countries (TWh) in 2018
Figure 10 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 21
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Overlapping priorities and e ective policies for a just and clean European energy transition
Figure 11 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 23
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Greenhouse gas emissions from 1990-2015 and in 2030 and 2050 target scenarios
Figure 12 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 27
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Strategies for a cost-efficient transformation of the energy sectors by 2030
Figure 13 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 29
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Transforming the power sector for 2030
Figure 14 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 31
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2030 projection of renewable electricity share in European Commission’s Long Term Strategy
Figure 15 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 93
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Transforming the buildings sector for 2030
Figure 16 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 35
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Transforming the transport sector for 2030
Figure 17 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 38
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Transforming the industry sector for 2030
Figure 18 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 41
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Transforming network infrastructure for 2030
Figure 19 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 45
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Investment costs are higher in a target scenario vs a reference scenario,.but so are growth and jobs
Figure 20 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 49
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Difference in investments, costs and benefits (in billion euro) in 2030 between the EU reference Scenario and a target scenario (excludes climate damages)
Figure 21 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 51
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Overview of the EU's 2030 climate and energy target framework
Figure 22 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 54
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EU Legislative Map
Figure 23 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 58
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Proposed EU-level framework to support member state implementation.and raising ambition (2019-2024)
Figure 24 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 63
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Shares of overall state aid in the EU by category, 2018
Figure 25 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 67
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Potential areas of application for a shadow carbon price
Figure 26 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 69
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Individual and overall e ciencies for cars with different vehicle drive technologies, starting from renewable electricitiy
Figure 27 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 71
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Projected transport freight demand until 2050 for the EU
Figure 28 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 73
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EU aviation and shipping transport emissions are projected to grow by 20% (2015-30), and far more globally
Figure 29 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 75
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Global lithium demand for lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries in 2015, 2030, and 2050 is much smaller than resource availability even in scenario consistent with 2°C temperature increase
Figure 30 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 77
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Production process for electrofuels (hydrogen, PtG methane and PtL fuels) from sun and wind
Figure 31 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 79
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Maximum decarbonization costs for cement and steel
Figure 32 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 81
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Share of cohesion policy funding in public investment per Member State (%), 2015-2017
Figure 33 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 83
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Time-table of important dates 2018-2030
Figure 34 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 88
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Select results of competitive auctions and power purchase agreements 2016–2018 in €/MWh
Figure 33 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 91
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2030 projection of renewable electricity share in European Commission’s Long Term Strategy
Figure 33 from European energy transition 2030: the big picture on page 93
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Our experts
-
Matthias Buck
Director Europe