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Kazakhstan is at a critical juncture where decisive policy action could unlock its significant clean energy potential.
Coal powers 66 percent of Kazakhstan’s electricity and is responsible for 40 percent of its emissions, yet current plans to grow renewables to 25 percent by 2035 would cut power sector emissions by just 1 percent. Expanding renewables like solar and wind more rapidly is necessary to meet the country’s 2060 carbon neutrality target.
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Ramping up renewables, avoiding new coal capacity and boosting the operational flexibility of existing fossil assets can accelerate a cost-effective transformation of the power sector.
By increasing the share of renewables to 35 percent by 2035, Kazakhstan could reduce power sector emissions by 4 percent compared to 2023 while lowering system costs by 40 percent compared to current plans. The ongoing update to the country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement framework provides a timely opportunity to reflect these more ambitious measures.
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Significant power system emissions reductions are achievable with higher domestic carbon prices.
A carbon price of around USD 40 per tonne by 2035 would increase renewables’ share in power generation by up to 47 percent and reduce power sector emissions by 44 percent compared to 2023, while lowering system costs by 1 percent versus current plans. A robust domestic carbon price would also reduce upcoming EU carbon border adjustment mechanism payments for Kazakh exporters, keeping revenues in-country which could then be reinvested in renewables and grids.
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Kazakhstan’s vast and cost-efficient wind energy potential offers a particularly strong foundation for scaling up renewable energy capacity.
The country could increase its wind power capacity to 10 gigawatts by 2035, twice as much as the government is currently planning – or even more. Unlocking this potential would support deeper emission reductions and enable more ambitious national climate targets.
Kazakhstan’s power system 2035: options for development
Insights from in-house modelling of Kazakhstan’s power sector
Preface
Kazakhstan has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Modernising its coal-dependent power system is key to reaching this goal while maintaining economic competitiveness. Today, fossil fuels dominate electricity generation, but with falling renewable energy costs and abundant wind resources, the country has a clear opportunity to transition towards a cleaner, more affordable energy future.
To support this process, Agora Energiewende has developed a detailed in-house power system model for Kazakhstan, based on the open-source PyPSA framework. The analysis explores pathways for increasing the share of renewables to at least 35 percent by 2035 – and up to 47 percent with supportive policy measures – while reducing emissions, enhancing energy security, lowering long-term system costs and avoiding costly investments in fossil infrastructure.
The slide deck presented here summarises the key findings and offers practical options for policymakers, planners and stakeholders to help shape Kazakhstan’s power sector in line with its climate and development objectives. It is available below in both English and Russian.
Key findings
Bibliographical data
Downloads
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Slide Deck
pdf 1 MB
Kazakhstan’s power system 2035: options for development
Insights from in-house modelling of Kazakhstan’s power sector
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Презентация
pdf 1 MB
Электроэнергетическая система Казахстана 2035: сценарии развития
Результаты моделирования с использованием собственной модели
