How ramping up renewables could power a cleaner, cheaper Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has a clear opportunity to modernise its power system, cut emissions and lower long-term energy costs. Agora Energiewende’s new analysis shows that increasing the share of renewables to 35 percent – or even higher – by 2035 can help the country move beyond coal, enhance energy security and meet its target of climate neutrality by 2060.
Kazakhstan stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition, with a strong foundation to modernise its power sector, reduce emissions and strengthen energy security – all while lowering long-term costs. A new analysis by Agora Energiewende outlines practical options that would allow the country to build on existing plans and achieve more ambitious outcomes by 2035.
Today, coal plays a dominant role in Kazakhstan’s power system, accounting for 66 percent of electricity generation and 40 percent of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Renewables, including large hydropower, currently make up just 13 percent of the power mix. To help chart a more sustainable course, Agora developed an in-house energy system model – based on the Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) framework – to explore several development pathways for Kazakhstan’s power system. The findings show that by increasing the share of renewables to 35 percent, avoiding new coal capacity and operating fossil fuel plants more flexibly, Kazakhstan could reduce power sector emissions by 4 percent compared to 2023 and lower total system costs by 40 percent compared to the current official strategy.
Pathways to greater emission reductions
Even higher emission reductions in Kazakhstan could be achieved with a stronger commitment to expanding renewable energy alongside additional climate policies. For example, a domestic carbon price of around USD 40 per tonne of carbon dioxide by 2035 could support an increase in the share of renewables up to 47 percent and drive a 44 percent reduction in power sector emissions, compared to 2023 levels. Though this would increase overall system costs, such a measure would help lower upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) payments for Kazakh exporters to the European Union and allow for domestic revenues from carbon pricing to then be reinvested in grid infrastructure and renewable energy deployment.
These insights come at an important moment, as Kazakhstan works to update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. The findings suggest that more ambitious climate and energy targets are not only within reach but also economically beneficial. The country’s historically low domestic coal and gas prices have shaped its current energy mix, making fossil fuels a dominant and affordable source of electricity. By acting now, Kazakhstan can avoid locking in outdated infrastructure and instead take advantage of the falling costs of renewables and growing availability of clean energy technologies.
Wind power, in particular, offers a strategic advantage. Kazakhstan’s vast and low-cost wind resources could support the installation of at least 10 gigawatts of wind capacity by 2035, which is double the figure in the current power development plan. In this scenario, wind would provide up to 92 percent of the country’s variable renewable electricity, with solar photovoltaic supplying the rest. This would support a more diverse and resilient power mix, while aligning with long-term climate goals.
With growing momentum around power sector reform and increasing attention to climate resilience – underscored by the recent heatwave across Central Asia that put pressure on local infrastructure – Kazakhstan is well positioned to take the next step in its energy transition. Agora’s analysis shows that with swift and targeted policy choices, the country can advance its climate and energy goals while building a more reliable and affordable power system.
The slide deck “Kazakhstan’s power system 2035: options for development” is available for free download below.
