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Format
Policy Brief
Date
9 July 2026

Affordable, sustainable, secure: the EU’s electric future

Summary

The EU’s electrification rate has stalled at 23.4 percent of final energy consumption in 2024, while continued fossil fuel dependence leaves consumers and industry exposed to price shocks and geopolitical risks. Yet momentum is building beneath the surface: 2025 saw more than 2.2 million heat pump installations across Europe and electric vehicle market share climb from 15 to 19 percent - gains not yet visible in the big picture due to persistent monitoring gaps.

This brief argues that an electrification target expected in the EU's forthcoming Electrification Action Plan should be underpinned by a lean set of national and sectoral indicators tracking electricity uptake in industry, buildings and transport. The technologies and policy solutions required are largely proven; what is needed now is deployment at scale. An electrification target that integrates such indicators, backed by timely progress monitoring, can provide clear direction and ensure that policies are tailored to the different starting points and transition challenges across Member States and sectors.

Key findings

  1. Renewables-powered electrification is the most effective mid- and long-term response to shield consumers from fossil energy crises.

    By reducing dependence on fossil fuels, it addresses the root causes of price volatility and supply insecurity, and cuts emissions. The EU's Electrification Action Plan is a chance to accelerate the stagnating electrification at only around 23 percent of electricity in final energy consumption. 

  2. An electrification target should complement a strong clean and renewable energy target, be defined with national and sectoral granularity, and be backed by clear data.

    A simple set of regularly updated Eurostat national and sectoral KPIs on electricity shares in industry, buildings and transport, heat pump stock and sales, and EV registrations would close the current data gap. In addition, concrete policy measures are needed to drive change.

  3. Technically feasible and economically viable solutions exist across industry, buildings and transport sectors.

    Faster grid connection, carbon contracts for difference and power prices that can compete with those of gas can accelerate uptake in industry, while a clean heat market instrument can drive residential heat pump deployment at scale. Targeted support for low-income households, e.g. socially balanced support schemes for heat pumps and EVs, can ensure the transition is fast and fair.

  4. For Europe, acting now is about both domestic policy and global positioning.

    The EU’s electrification agenda is part of a broader global momentum, including an anticipated COP31 target. This global shift is opening new markets for cleantech manufacturing. By securing strong domestic demand, Europe can strengthen its own cleantech industry, positioning itself to lead globally while reinforcing its economy at home.

Clean electrification is the cornerstone of energy sovereignty and decarbonisation

Electrification is the central strategy to make use of home grown and clean energy, enhancing long-term competitiveness and resilience. By shifting final energy consumption from fossil fuels to clean electricity, Europe can simultaneously address two interlocking crises: fossil price shocks driven by energy import dependence and climate change. As the power sector increasingly runs on renewables, electrifying industry, buildings and transport translates clean electrons into widespread decarbonisation. At the same time, reducing dependence on imported fossil gas and oil shields consumers and businesses from the price spikes and geopolitical vulnerabilities that have repeatedly destabilised European economies – not least by cutting the EU's energy import bill, which stood at almost 340 billion Euros in 2025.

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The urgency of this transition extends beyond domestic considerations to Europe's global competitive standing: electrification is a major opportunity to build a competitive European industry. By 2035, electrified manufacturing processes in most industries can close today's competitiveness gap with fossil and electrified processes in the US and China – provided effective carbon pricing and predictable, competitive electricity prices are embedded within a coherent industrial strategy. (Agora Energiewende: 2026)

This global shift towards electrification is also reshaping the markets for the technologies enabling it. As countries worldwide ramp up electrification, demand for heat pumps, EVs and other clean technologies is growing, opening new export markets for cleantech manufacturers. Securing strong domestic demand can give Europe's cleantech industry the scale and certainty to compete internationally. At the same time, this momentum is intensifying competition at home: incumbent European manufacturers in the automotive and heating sectors increasingly face pressure from international competitors backed by larger domestic markets. How quickly Europe builds domestic demand will thus shape not only its own decarbonisation, but whether its manufacturing base can hold its ground on the global market (Agora Energiewende: 2025a).

While China surpassed Europe already 10 years ago the rest of the world is closing the gap in the global electrification race.

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The big picture: electrification development in the EU

Despite growing policy ambition, the share of electricity in EU final energy consumption has barely increased. In 2024, the electrification rate stood at 23.4 percent - only marginally above the 23.1 percent recorded in 2023, and broadly in line with a decade-long plateau starting at 23.2 percent in 2014. 

To meet the EU's own 2030 benchmark of 32% electricity share in final energy consumption, the electrification rate must increase by 1.4 percentage points per year – every year until the end of the decade. At current pace, that target is slipping out of reach. Within the last ten years, the share of electricity in the EU’s final energy consumption has risen by only 0.2 percentage points. 

But looking at more recent developments in 2025, the picture is not uniformly bleak anymore: some indicators point to genuinely dynamic growth.

  • Heat pumps: Europe saw more than 2.2 million installations in 2025; in Germany, heat pumps accounted for almost half of the heating market, and UK sales rose by 27 percent (EHPA: 2026).
  • Electric vehicle registrations have accelerated across Europe, even doubling in Slovakia, Slovenia, Iceland and Poland in 2025. Their overall market share in Europe climbed from 15 to 19 percent (icct: 2026).

These examples show that the underlying technologies are ready and markets are responding. What is missing is the scale and speed of the developing market and technology deployment – as well as their visibility: these encouraging 2025 signals will only appear in the Eurostat electrification statistics at the next annual update in 2027.

The monitoring gap: out of date and out of data

Most required data are available already, but would need to be collected earlier and more often. Essential monitoring data on key electrification indicators is fragmented, outdated, published with months or even years of delay or simply unavailable at the EU level. 

The data gaps are especially acute for buildings and heat pumps and the timing is critical: the EU and Member States are actively shaping the next generation of buildings policy (subsidy design, building requirements, market instruments), but all sectors lack the monitoring infrastructure to assess what is working where. 

Some Member States are collecting relevant data, but coverage is patchy, e.g. heat pump stock and sales figures are currently available for only 16 of 27 EU countries, sourced not from official statistics but from industry associations. This data is not systematically collected, harmonised, or published at EU level.

State of data on relvant electrification indicators

KPIsPublicly available data per countryTime resolutionAvailable timeframe 01.07.2026
Share of electricity in buildings FECYes (Eurostat nrg_bal_s)annually1990–2024
Share of heat pumps in buildings stock and in salesNo (Numbers are available for only 16 European countries from EHPA)annually2005–2024
Share of electricity in industry FECYes (Eurostat nrg_bal_s)annually1990–2024
Share of electricity in energy consumption for process heat productionYes (Eurostat nrg_bal_c)annually1990–2024
Share of electricity in FEC of the sub-sectorsYes (Eurostat nrg_bal_s)annually1990–2024
Share of electricity in transport FECYes (Eurostat nrg_bal_s)annually1990–2024
Share of electric vehicles in the fleet and in sales for individual, public & commercial transportYes (Eurostat road_eqr_carpda)annually2013–2024

A small set of key performance indicators (KPIs) collected more frequently would be sufficient to give policymakers, researchers and the public the monitoring infrastructure they need. Specifically, the following indicators should be collected at least annually, disaggregated by Member State and published in the Eurostat database during the first quarter of the following year:

  • Buildings 
    • Share of electricity in buildings final energy consumption
    • Share of heat pumps in buildings stock and heat pump sales
  • Industry
    • Share of electricity in industry final energy consumption
    • Share of electricity in energy consumption for process heat production
    • Share of electricity in the final energy consumption of the subsectors
  • Transport 
    • Share of electricity in transport final energy consumption
    • Share of electric vehicles in stock and registrations in individual, public & commercial transport across all vehicle segments

Most of this data already exists at national level – the challenge is harmonisation and timely and accessible EU-level publication.

Acceleration measures – with or without data, electrification must pick up speed

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Granular data is the foundation of effective policy design. Understanding where electrification is accelerating, which technologies are scaling and which sectors and Member States are lagging is essential to evaluate existing and target new policy instruments efficiently. 

However, the data gap cannot be used as an excuse for inaction. A set of acceleration measures should be pursued in parallel with closing the monitoring gap: 

Buildings

Lower power prices reduce operation costs of heat pumps, but high upfront costs remain a barrier - even where grants are available.

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A Clean Heat Market Instrument would place an obligation on heating appliance manufacturers to achieve a rising share of clean appliance sales – analogous to the COstandards for car manufacturers. Complementing existing policies to boost demand for clean appliances, the instrument would ensure that demand-side measures are accompanied by sufficient incentives for suppliers to bring down prices and improve consumer access (Agora Energiewende: 2025b).

Complementing such a market tool, targeted social financing schemes are needed to ensure the transition is fast and fair. These can take the form of financial support combining grants and low-interest loans to close the affordability gap. In addition, technical assistance delivered through local one-stop shops would provide tailored advice on technology choice, installation and available funding. Together, these elements turn heat pump access from a privilege of the well-informed and well-resourced into a realistic option for all (Agora Energiewende: 2025c).

Clean Heat Market Instrument: Incentives for heating manufacturers would improve accessibility.

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Complementing such a market tool, targeted social financing schemes are needed to ensure the transition is fast and fair. These can take the form of financial support combining grants and low-interest loans to close the affordability gap. In addition, technical assistance delivered through local one-stop shops would provide tailored advice on technology choice, installation and available funding. Together, these elements turn heat pump access from a privilege of the well-informed and well-resourced into a realistic option for all (Agora Energiewende: 2025d).

Industry

Industrial electrification requires addressing both cost and regulatory barriers simultaneously. Priority measures include faster and more predictable grid connection procedures for industrial sites and the integration of climate targets-consistent industrial demand into grid planning and adequacy assessment; Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) at national level, and EU-level auction mechanisms for temporary support to bridge the cost gap for high-temperature processes where electric solutions are not yet cost-competitive. Underlying all of this is the need for a predictable and declining electricity-to-gas price ratio – driven by carbon pricing and continued acceleration of clean electricity deployment. (Agora Industry: 2025)

Low-temperature = low-hanging fruit: around half of industry’s process heating is required at low and medium temperatures.

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Transport

The electric vehicle transition is progressing but requires reinforcement at the system level. Key measures include maintaining ambition for CO₂ standards for passenger cars and vans, as well as heavy-duty-vehicles, to provide investment certainty to manufacturers, infrastructure planners and consumers alike. To incentivise not only the uptake of EVs but also their optimal integration into power grids, smart charging should become the default for all EV use cases such as private homes, workplaces and logistics depots. This requires building on provisions of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) to establish public “backbone” charging infrastructure network across Europe. Furthermore, deploying locally differentiated dynamic or time-varying network pricing along with smart meters to help build a market for smart tariffs and services, aligning EV charging with grid and RES availability is crucial to save system and user cost. Proactive, anticipatory grid investment by distribution operators, guided by standardised hosting capacity maps as well as locational vehicle charging demand data, is moreover essential to achieve a robust infrastructure for the EV transition. (RAP: 2024)

The shift to electric vehicles is underway. Making it work for the grid requires good data, timely reinforcement, and smart integration.

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Conclusion: target, monitor, act

When the EU sets an electrification target, grounded in the continuation of clean energy policy frameworks, it needs to be accompanied by national and sectoral indicators to clarify ambition and support progress tracking. A systematic monitoring framework built on a limited number of timely updated and publicly available KPIs forms the basis for tailoring policies to the different starting points and transition challenges across member states and sectors.

The good news is in all three demand sectors technically feasible and economically viable solutions either already exist or are within reach – strong policy measures can accelerate their deployment. In industry, faster grid connection, CCfDs and energy taxation that ensures electricity can compete with gas can accelerate electrification. In heating, a clean heat market instrument can drive heat pump deployment at scale. In both, buildings and transport, targeted support, e.g. socially balanced support schemes for low-income households can ensure the transition is fast and fair. 

Electrification will be central to Europe’s future. The countries and industries that electrify fastest, building on clean, homegrown power generation, will not just cut emissions, they will win the competition for energy security, industrial strength and economic resilience for decades to come.

The below slide deck is a slightly shorter version of the interactive policy brief, covering the main data and recommendations for measures across industry, buildings and transport.

Bibliographical data

Authors
Katharina Hartz, Fabian Hein, Marco Giuli, Steffen Verheyen, Rina Bohle Zeller (all Agora), Julia Hildermeyer (RAP)
Publication number
421/07-P-2026/EN
Version number
1.0
Publication date

9 July 2026

Pages
19
Suggested citation
Agora Energiewende: Affordable, sustainable, secure: The EU’s electric future
Project
Produced within the framework of Affordable, sustainable, secure: the EU’s electric future