Rethinking Europe’s energy security: from import dependence to domestic resilience
As Europe advances towards climate neutrality amid rising geopolitical tensions, the concept of energy security is shifting. A new Agora paper maps today’s opportunities and risks, showing how domestic policy is central to securing an energy future built on renewables, efficiency and circularity.
Redirecting the vast sums now spent on fossil fuel imports into the clean energy transition would bolster Europe’s energy security, strengthen the economy and cut emissions, according to a new policy brief by Agora Energiewende and Agora Industry.
The European Union is at a critical stage in shaping its energy future. In a decarbonising and electrifying economy, energy security no longer means securing fossil fuel supplies. Instead, it requires robust renewables-based power systems and reliable access to clean technologies and materials. The paper identifies risks and vulnerabilities in this “mid-transition” phase and sets out an EU agenda that maximises synergies between climate and security goals.
Frauke Thies, Co-Director Europe at Agora Energiewende, says:
“Europe’s energy security will be won through the same investment priorities that drive climate neutrality: renewable energy, electrification and the systems that enable them. Now is the time for the EU to turn this into decisive policy, starting with upgrading power grids and closing the price gap between fossil gas and electricity.”
Turning fossil risks into renewables-powered opportunity
Between 2014 and 2024, Europe spent about 295 billion euros a year on fossil fuel imports. Redirecting this spending into renewables, modern infrastructure and smart technologies would fundamentally strengthen Europe’s resilience. This amount is roughly equal to the annual investment needed in the 2030s to modernise Europe’s grid and power sector on the path to climate neutrality.
Reaching climate targets requires a rapid decline in fossil fuel use, driven by renewables, electrification and efficiency. Expanding renewables brings immediate energy security benefits by cutting fuel imports. These benefits grow further when renewables are paired with system flexibility, such as storage, demand-side response and stronger interconnections.
A system based on variable renewables, however, also brings new operational challenges. These must be tackled through robust policy, advanced grid technologies and coordinated EU action. With the right planning, Europe can replace fossil-based vulnerability with resilience built on domestic capability, the authors argue.
Mid-transition vulnerabilities
In the middle stage of the transition, Europe’s reliance on raw materials and clean technologies such as wind and solar will rise. But once the economy is climate neutral, these dependencies are expected to fall well below today’s reliance on fossil fuels. Unlike fossil risks, they are sector-specific rather than systemic and can largely be managed through domestic policies such as greater reuse and recycling. At the same time, clean energy materials and technologies are long-term investments that do not require constant fuel, making the energy system operation less vulnerable to external shocks.
Still, even as fossil dependence fades, new vulnerabilities could emerge – especially through growing imports of clean fuels like hydrogen. Because hydrogen behaves in many ways like fossil gas, Agora cautions that it should be limited to “no-regret” uses – like long-haul shipping, aviation and certain industrial uses – where electrification is not an option.
Managing gas decline and LNG exposure
As fossil gas demand falls, Europe risks deeper exposure to volatile LNG markets and related methane emissions. Planned decommissioning of gas infrastructure and targeted support for sectors needing more transition time will be essential.
Without clear signals, low LNG prices could trigger new investments in gas appliances, locking households and businesses into a volatile and insecure fuel. Accelerating the fossil gas phase-out, the paper stresses, is a win for both climate and security.
Electrification at the core
Direct electrification should be the backbone of Europe’s energy security strategy. It boosts efficiency and cuts fossil dependence, Agora argues. Delivering this requires integrated policies that connect grid development, end-use planning and pricing reforms.
The paper points to priorities such as phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, reforming taxes and network charges and the upcoming extension of the EU carbon market (ETS 2) to buildings and transport. Importantly, rebalancing costs in favour of clean electricity should be central to the forthcoming EU Electrification Action Plan.
Looking ahead
As Europe electrifies and relies more on renewables and efficiency, the amount and type of energy it needs will change. Energy security should no longer be defined by fuel supplies, but by reliable energy services for households and businesses, viewed from a whole-system perspective. It should also be seen as a dynamic concept – one that anticipates risks and adapts as they arise.
For example, system-wide planning and investment will be crucial to manage growing seasonal and weekly swings in demand as electricity use for heating expands. A resource-resilient approach will strengthen Europe’s ability to meet its own needs by expanding domestic renewables, building strong supply chains with trusted partners and recycling the clean technologies and materials already embedded in EU systems.
Frauke Thies concluded:
“To ensure a secure and climate-aligned future, the EU must rethink energy security. By embracing a systemic, dynamic and resource-resilient approach, Europe can turn external vulnerabilities into domestic strengths.”
The 29-page policy brief draws on stakeholder input and a contribution by the Ecologic institute. It is available for free download below.
